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pankaj ghemawat > articles
Harvard Business Review

  Ghemawat, Pankaj.
"Finding Your Strategy in the New Landscape"

  Harvard Business Review
  March 2010

The 2008 crash hit cross-border business hard. The value of international trade was projected to decline by as much as 9% in 2009. Foreign direct investment has plunged even more: After dropping 15% in 2008, it fell by more than 40% in 2009. Though we may have reached the bottom, the prospects for the medium term don’t look promising. For much of the next decade, we can reasonably expect to see weak global growth, pressures from overcapacity, persistently high unemployment, volatility in the financial markets, costlier capital, a greatly expanded role for governments, a much larger burden of regulation and taxation for all, and maybe even increased protectionism. If we experience a second crash, as some experts worry, these conditions could all worsen.

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